Our Research
We adopted our Fair Weather strategy only after years of diligent research into strategies that have been scientifically measured as having worked historically. We don’t accept conventional anecdotes as to what works until those theories have been quantitatively back-tested and analyzed.
This research culminated in the publication of the whitepaper, Testing the Simple Moving Average across Commodities, Global Stock Indices and Currencies, in the Journal of Wealth Management.
This research was also inspired in great part by Mebane Faber’s research into long term moving averages, as outlined in his 2009 whitepaper, A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation.
Past performance is no indicator of future return. There is no guarantee that applying a moving average strategy will either increase your portfolio’s return or lower its volatility as compared to any other strategy. Some securities and market environments are particularly unsuitable for trading using a moving average system. A moving average strategy will likely incur higher commissions than a buy and hold strategy and may or may not increase your taxes relative to buying and holding.